Weather in the UK seems to be more unpredictable. 2013 had the coldest spring for over half a century, according to the BBC,
following the coldest winter on record in 2010. Conversely, 2012 started with near-drought conditions, until the summer turned out to be the second wettest since 1910. The wettest was in 2000, a cause of flooding all across the UK. So what may be the cause of these changes in the UK weather? Are changes in the Gulf Stream responsible?
The Gulf Stream
The Gulf Stream is one of the strongest ocean currents in the world. Originating in the Gulf of Mexico, this current flows along the east coast of North America and out across the Atlantic Ocean towards Europe. The process involves surface water in the North Atlantic cooling and taking on more salt. This cooler, salty water is denser than the surrounding liquid, so sinks. The heat is given up from the water and raises the temperature of the air currents, warming the British Isles, Ireland and the rest of Europe. Colder water moves south towards the equator, where it is slowly warmed up again by sunlight. The Gulf Stream carries the warmer water northwards once more and the cycle is repeated.
Changes in the Gulf Stream
In the last sixty years, the amount of cold water flowing south from Greenland has dropped by 20%. This may be due to a variety of factors, including the loss of polar ice.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) notes that there are increases in overall global temperatures and a reduction the salinity of the oceans. These two factors could adversely affect the Gulf Stream. While there will not be a sudden collapse, there may be a reduction over the next century, with the weather on both sides of the Atlantic being affected. The fate of the Gulf Stream in the longer term is much harder to predict.
The melting of the polar ice will not shut off the Gulf Stream, according to Scientific American, but it may affect its strength.
Potential Effects on British Weather
Changes in the Gulf Stream could result in more extreme weather conditions, according to the Met Office. As the world’s climate warms up, more moisture is held in the atmosphere. From research performed by the Met Office, there has been an increase of 0.7 degrees Centigrade in the average global temperature since the beginning off the Industrial Revolution. This translates into an increase of some 4% in atmospheric moisture, a level that increases the chances of heavier rainfall. Britain is experiencing similar weather to that of India or China, where high volumes of rainfall occur in short periods of time. With more intense wet weather conditions, it may be worth investing in some appropriate waterproof clothing.
More Research
The link between changes in the Gulf Stream and Britain’s wet weather is still unclear. Sources such as the Met Office, the IPCC and Scientific American suggest that more research is needed to establish the potential effects on British weather. These sources cite other factors such as the Gulf Stream, the sun and global warming. More research and testing of various climate models are also required.